How to market watchers made the wrong way with bitcoin in 2022, Between $250,000 and $10,000 price call.

Bitcoin price hits late-2020 levels as crypto market suffers fresh

The list ranges from Tim Draper to top crypto CEOs. The market was inundated with experts predicting record-breaking levels for bitcoin in 2022.

Some market players could have been more enthusiastic and some accurately predicted bitcoin slipping below $20,000, even down to $10,000.

However, the demise of stablecoin terraUSD, the liquidity problems in the crypto sector, and the dramatic demise of the FTX exchange shocked investors and caused ripples throughout the market.

2022 was the year that marked the beginning of the new “crypto winter,” which saw high-profile firms collapse across the board and the prices of digital currencies plummet dramatically. The events of 2022 shocked many investors and made anticipating the price of bitcoin difficult.

The crypto market was overflowing with analysts making frantic calls on where bitcoin would go the next time. They were generally optimistic, but some correctly predicted that bitcoin would fall below $20,000 per coin.

Many market observers also needed to prepare for a turbulent year for cryptocurrency, with high-profile company and project mistakes sending shock waves through the sector.

It started in May and culminated when terraUSD fell to the ground (also known as UST, an algorithmic stablecoin that was designed to be tied one-to-one to the U.S. dollar. The failure of terra USD brought down its twin token, luna, and harmed companies that had exposure to both cryptos.

Three Arrows Capital, a hedge fund with positive views on cryptocurrency, plunged into liquidation and declared bankruptcy due to its exposure to TerraUSD.

Then was the November crash of FTX, one of the biggest cryptocurrency exchanges managed by Sam Bankman-Fried, a senior executive who was frequently on the news. The aftermath of FTX continues to impact the crypto industry.

Alongside the failures specific to crypto, Investors have also faced rising rates of interest that have increased the pressure on risk assets like crypto and stocks.

Bitcoin has dropped approximately 75% since its record-breaking high of $69,000 in November 2021. over $2 trillion was erased from the worth of the cryptocurrency market. On Friday, the price of bitcoin was less than $17,000.

Our reporter has reached out responsible for some of the most daring price calls made regarding bitcoin in 2022. We asked them to explain why they made the wrong decision and if the past year’s events have changed their view of the largest cryptocurrency in the world.

Tim Draper: $250,000

In 2018, at a tech-related conference at the Tech Conference in Amsterdam, Tim Draper predicted bitcoin would reach $250,000 at the end of 2022. The famous Silicon Valley investor wore a purple tie with bitcoin logos and even did an impromptu performance about bitcoin’s digital currency live on stage.

After four years, it’s like Draper’s prediction is unlikely to come to fruition. When the question was posed about his $250,000 goal earlier in the month, Draper’s Draper Associates founder told that $250,000 “is an amount I’m willing to accept” However, Draper is extending his forecast by six months.

“I am expecting a shift to a decentralized and high-quality crypto like bitcoin and even for some less secure coins to be relegated to the dustbin of history,” he told via email.

For Draper’s predictions to be accurate, bitcoin must rise close to 1400% from its current value of around $17,000. Draper reasons that despite liquidating prominent players like FTX, however, there’s an enormous untapped audience for bitcoin: women.

“I believe that because women control the majority of retail purchases and just 1 in 7 bitcoin wallets are held by women, the dam is about to crack,” Draper said.

Nexo: $100,000

The month of April saw Antoni Trenchev, the CEO of the crypto lender Nexo speak that he was convinced that the most prominent cryptocurrency in the world could rise to over 100,000 “within one year.” Although he has four months left, Trenchev acknowledges that bitcoin will likely rise to this high sometime soon.

Bitcoin “was on a positive trajectory” with increasing institutional acceptance, Trenchev says, but “a couple of significant forces slowed it down,” including an accumulation of leverage, borrowing with no collateral, or against poor-quality collateral and fraud.

“I am very pleased with the stableness of crypto prices. However, I don’t think that we are done with the saga as of now, and the third and second-order effects remain to be seen and I am doubtful about the possibility of a recovery in the V-shape,” Trenchev said.

The entrepreneur claims he’s no longer making bitcoin price predictions. “My suggestion to anyone, however, is still the same,” he added. “Get one single percentage point in your bitcoin-related assets that you can invest in and don’t look at it for more than 5-10 years. Thank me later.”

Guido Buehler: $75,000

In January. 12 Guido Buehler, the former chief executive officer of the regulated Swiss bank Seba, which is focused on cryptocurrencies, stated that Seba has an “internal valuation model” that ranged from $50,000 to $75,000 for bitcoins in 2022.

Buehler’s argument included the idea that investors from institutions could aid in pushing the price up.


At the time, bitcoin was traded between $42,000 to $45,000. Bitcoin hit $50,000 in 2022.

An executive who currently has his investment and advisory company said that 2022 had become an “annus horribilis” in reply inquiries about what went wrong during the call.

“The conflict of Ukraine in February brought about an earthquake in the model of global order and economic markets,” Buehler said, explaining the implications of the increased markets’ volatility and the rising cost of living due to the disruption to commodities such as oil.

Another significant aspect was “the realization that interest rates are the main driver for most assets,” including crypto, which “was an axe to the crypto community because there is a perception that the crypto asset class isn’t linked with conventional assets.”

Buehler noted that there was a lack of risk management within the crypto market and a lack of regulations and fraud, which have been key factors in influencing the price.

However, the CEO remains optimistic about bitcoin, stating that it could hit $75,000 “sometime in the future.” However, it’s “all dependent on the timing.”

“I consider that BTC has proven its resilience through every crisis in 2008, and it will prove its resilience.”

Paolo Ardoino: $50,000

Paolo Ardoino, chief technology officer at Bitfinex and Tether, told in April that he anticipated bitcoin to drop below $40,000, yet to close the year “well over” $50,000.

“I’m an enthusiastic person about bitcoin … I’m seeing an abundance of happenings in this business as well as so many nations are interested in the use of bitcoin that I’m very optimistic,” he said at the time.

On the talk date, bitcoin was trading at more than $41,000. The first part of the Ardoino claim was true Bitcoin did drop just below $40,000. However, it didn’t recover.

In a follow-up message this month, Ardoino declared that he was convinced about bitcoin’s strength and the blockchain technology that underlies it.

“As said that predictions are difficult to make. It is impossible to have predicted or predicted the number of companies that are well-respected by the international community that fail in such a dramatic manner,” he told.

“Some legitimate concerns and doubts are still unanswered about the future of cryptocurrency. It’s certainly a volatile market, but the techniques created behind it are incredible.”

Deutsche Bank: $28,000

The most prominent theme for 2022 is bitcoin’s connection to U.S. stock indexes, particularly the tech-focused Nasdaq 100. In June, Deutsche Bank analysts published the following note: Bitcoin could close the year at around $27,000. At the time of the note, the bitcoin price was less than $20,000.

The reasoning was the assumption by Equity analysts at Deutsche Bank that the S&P 500 would jump to $4,750 by the end of the year.

However, it is highly unlikely to come through.

Marion Laboure, one of the contributors to Deutsche Bank’s first report on crypto in June, stated that the bank is now expecting bitcoin to reach about $21,000.

“High inflation, tightening of monetary policy, and slow economic growth have added pressure to the cryptocurrency market,” Labor told and added that traditional assets, like bonds, could be more appealing to investors than bitcoin.

Labor added that the high-profile downturns continue to sag the mood.

“Every time a major participant in the cryptocurrency industry is unable to perform, the entire community suffers from a crisis of confidence,” she said.

“In addition to the lack of regulation, the biggest obstacles are the lack of transparency, conflicts of interest and liquidity, and the inaccessibility of reliable information. The FTX collapse serves as a reminder that these issues remain unsolved.”

JPMorgan: $13,000

In November. 9, research report, JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and his team forecasted that the bitcoin price would fall to about $13,000 “in the next few months.” They were able to see the future following their experience with the FTX liquidity crises, which they claimed caused a “new stage of deleveraging in crypto,” putting downside pressure on prices.

The expense costs miners to create new bitcoins typically serves as the “floor” for the bitcoin price and could be re-visited at the $13,000 mark in the summer, analysts predicted. This is closer to bitcoin’s current value than other predictions. However, it’s still far less than Friday’s value of less than $17,000.

A JPMorgan spokesperson told us that Panigirtzoglou “isn’t available to discuss further” regarding the group’s research forecast.

Absolute Strategy Research: $13,000

Ian Harnett, co-founder and chief investment officer of the macro-research firm Absolute Strategy Research, warned in June that the world’s most valuable digital currency could fall as low as $13,000.

In his explanation of his bearish prediction at the moment, Harnett said that, in the past, during crypto bull markets, the bitcoin price had been able to decline by around 80% from its all-time levels. In 2018, in particular, the currency plunged to as low as $3,000 after having a peak of $20,000 at the end of 2017.

Harnett’s goal is nearer than the majority. However, bitcoin needs to fall an additional 22% to get there.

When asked his feelings about the phone call, Harnett said he is “very content to say that we’re still at the stage of deflating the bitcoin bubble” and that a drop of around $13,000 is in the works.

“Bubbles generally experience a reversal of around 80,” he said in answer to questions sent to him via email.

In light of the U.S. Federal Reserve likely poised to raise interest rates even more in the coming year, a prolonged fall below $13,000 to $12,000 or even $10,000 in the future can’t be avoided, as per Harnett.

“Sadly, no fundamental valuation model applies to this asset. No agreement exists on whether it’s an asset or a commodity. This means that there is a good chance that it will trade lower in the event of an increase in liquidity or a malfunction of any other digital entities or trading platforms,” the analyst said.

Mark Mobius: $20,000 and then $10,000

A seasoned investment guru Mark Mobius has been one of the most accurate forecasters of bitcoin.

At the time of his interview in May, when bitcoin prices were over $28,000, he said to Financial News that bitcoin would likely drop to $20,000 and then rebound, eventually falling to $10,000.

Bitcoin was able to fall lower than $20,000 in June but then rebounded in August before falling throughout the remainder of the year.

But, the $10,000 mark did not get hit.

Mobius said that he expects bitcoin to reach $10,000 by 2023.

Carol Alexander: $10,000

In December 2021, one month after bitcoin’s all-time highest level, Carol Alexander, professor of finance at Sussex University, said she believed bitcoin would fall to $10,000 “or perhaps even more” in 2022.

Bitcoin in the year 2000 declined by around 30 percent from the record of $69,000. However, many crypto talk heads of the day were forecasting more gains. Alexander was among the few voices that fought the current.

“If you were an investor right now, I’d consider getting out of bitcoin as soon as possible because the price is likely to plummet in the coming this year.” a statement was made at that time. Her bearish prediction was based on the notion that bitcoin is not an excellent investment because it has no intrinsic value and is mainly utilized for “speculation.”

Bitcoin fell to less than $10,000 -but Alexander is pleased with her prediction. “Compared with other forecasts, mine was the most accurate,” she said.

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